My take on the Iran-Israel thing

Disclaimer : This will either be very boring or very exciting and interesting, depending on who you are.

I do remember posting about this way back. That’s not very good.

So here I am again, doing a repeat job with a whole new set of things to say. If you’re not interested in this, should I even tell you what to do next?

Share it anyway.

Meanwhile for those who are interested, it’s safe to assume that you’re all aware of the whole mess that’s going down just 2 countries to the west of us. Iran has acquired nuclear technology or is in the process of acquiring it. Israel believes that due to Mahmoud Ahmadinejad’s political rhetoric some years back, their very existence is in question if Iran gets nukes.

It’s a little more complex than that.

Israel’s problem

Israel already has nuclear weapons and follows a policy of “nuclear ambiguity“, that is, it says “It won’t be the first country to introduce nuclear weapons in the Middle east”, leaving everyone even kind of involved in analyzing Israels foreign policy confused. But let’s just assume that these guys have nuclear weapons.

Then they have nothing to worry about Iran. If Iran is stupid enough to attack Israel (they’re not), then Israel can go ballistic (literally) and destroy Iran.

They can’t do it directly, because of the physical distance between Israel and Iran. There is a logistical nightmare involved in figuring out where Iran keeps its nukes to destroy, like Israel did with Iraq in the past.

It’s not possible since the fighter jets that Israel possesses must need to carry a heavy payload of weapons which reduces the distance they can travel at one go. Compound this with the fact that Israel would literally have to fly over countries which don’t even kind of recognize it, then the problem just becomes that much tougher.

Wikileaks, however, revealed that despite the open enmity between the other Middle Eastern nations and Israel, Saudi Arabia invited Israel to use its airfields for any strike on Iran.

So let’s assume Israel has everything in place and attacks Iran. Iran is going to retaliate. Iran possesses several cruise missiles which can have nuclear warheads attached to them. They can easily retaliate against Israel and finish them off or send the whole scenario hurtling towards MAD.

Israels problem is not the political rhetoric of Iranian leaders. Israels problem is not its existence being threatened by Iran. Israels problem is the nightmare scenario of a Sunni bomb arising because of a Shia bomb. Let me explain.

Iran is a Shia majority country. Relations between Iran and Saudi Arabia, the two big powers in the Middle East, have been icy at best, angry rhetoric laced at worst. This is because Saudi is a Sunni majority country, and it’s not any secret that these two sects have no love between them. So if Iran were to get a nuclear weapon, Saudi Arabia will go to Pakistan and get its own nuclear weapon.

This will lead to rapid nuclear weaponization of the entire, volatile Middle East area. If Saudi Arabia also got nuclear weapons, then Israel is pretty much screwed since it has no more bargaining chips in the fucked up poker game that is Palestine. From having just one enemy with nuclear weapons, suddenly Israel will see its entire neighborhood full of people who hate its existence having deadly weapons which they won’t hesitate to use.

That’s Israels problem. So they’re going around threatening to destroy Iran and people do wager it will happen before winter this year (ie December). They’re also begging their biggest supporter and donor the Americans to help them out here. The Americans are doing everything in their power just short of military invasion to stop the Iranians from getting the nuclear weapons.

Iran’s problem

Iran has its own problem. It’s a different Muslim country – most of its population are not Arabic but are instead Persian, they speak Farsi and not Urdu and are a little more moderate than the Saudis. Ayatollah Khomeini hated the Saudi regime so much he called them the “ungodly and vile” Wahhabis and said Mecca was in the hands of a bunch of heretics.

Iran and Saudi Arabia have a past that is filled with baggage. Just to keep the story short, Saudi Arabia exterminated the Farsi speaking people in the past and tried to replace Farsi with Urdu and impose their wills on the Iranian people. Iran refused to give in and ultimately chased the Saudis away.

So that’s there.

Also there is Iran’s interest in Gaza and being seen as the savior of the Palestinians in the eyes of Muslims worldwide. Iran supports, arms, trains and funds Hamas, which is in-charge of Palestine for now. If Iran got nuclear weapons, then their proxy war can be fought against Israel in Palestine without Israel being able to respond at all because of the threat of nuclear weapons. This means brownies in the eyes of Muslim people everywhere, which is basically a way of one-upping the Saudis.

So naturally Iran would like to re-assure itself against who it sees as its enemies, and looking good in the eyes of Muslims worldwide. by obtaining nuclear weapons. Plus what I’m going to say is no secret  :

1) Gadaffi has nuclear weapons and nuclear technology obtained from Pakistans A.Q. Khan, which he gave up in return for a reduction in economic sanctions. Now he is dead.

2) Saddam Hussein is also dead when something similar happened with Iraq.

3) North Korea is still solidly trundling along in its own fantasy-filled world because it has nuclear weapons and isn’t afraid to give them up despite the fact that it’s people are suffering.

If you or anyone else were in Iran’s position, would you give up nuclear technology especially with the threat of invasion looming large and 3 US Navy carrier groups in your region? That’s another reason Iran is being stubborn. Despite Israels many continuous assassinations of its scientists, Iran refuses to halt is program which they say is for peaceful purposes, because it gives them leverage.

And I believe Iran is developing nuclear technology for just that – leverage. They can easily make nuclear bombs once they have the fissile material. And the first rule of having nuclear weapons is, is that you don’t use them, you just threaten to. Which is what I reckon Iran is doing. And I wouldn’t blame them.

With the number of sanctions increasing ten fold and its people suffering and its currency losing value rapidly, Iran has a matter of months to get the program finished and get their ace in the hole before the Americans, the Saudis or the Israelis can act.

Saudi Arabia’s problem

When the country that is home to a rival sect gets nuclear weapons, then you have every right to be scared. Saudi Arabia is scared shitless but won’t admit it. They want to prevent Iran from getting nuclear weapons in any way possible, even if it means offering to replace Iran’s crude with its own to countries like India and China. Or if it means offering its bases to the enemy of Muslim nations worldwide – Israel.

If Iran were to get nuclear weapons and Pakistan were to not give Saudi Arabia nuclear technology for whatever reason, then Saudi Arabia is considerably weakened against the Iranians. This means they cannot continue with their political and religious one-upmanship any longer because it simply won’t be possible. It’s a unwritten law of nature that the person with the biggest fist often wins.

And Saudi Arabia and a host of supporting Muslim nations do not want that. So they will do whatever it takes to prevent Iran from being successful.

United States’ problem

The United States has no other problem because Iran poses no threat to it directly. Iran does, however, pose a threat to the stability of the region, possibly the world as a fallout. It also poses a threat to US interests in the region (oil, its bases, its foreign policy) and also to US allies (Israel).

And as the worlds sole superpower and as the one country with the means to get things done by waving their very large guns around, they need to step in and take control of the situation. Or so they think. The United States has openly and completely supported Israel right from its inception due to the powerful Jewish lobby in the upper echelons of American society.

Right now though, there is a growing clamor to not support Israel and stay out of the problems of other countries. This growing clamor is still a minority. The majority of the leaders (the Republican candidates and Obama) advocate war versus Iran because that’s the only thing that could see them in office.

It’s a domestic political rhetoric and atleast began that way – as a way of saying “USA! USA! We are the most powerful country and everyone will do as we say”. Each and every Republican candidate standing for nomination from the Republican party this year, with the exception of Ron Paul (who is also my favorite) wants war with Iran. Barack Obama wants to stay in office and also be known as that tough President who wouldn’t mind protecting American interests.

Others want to get into office using the same logic. But their war-mongering hasn’t won them too many fans because of the state of the American economy and the fact that they can’t afford another war. It’s painfully obvious to every American who’s been laidoff and who is in danger of losing his job, and therefore the candidates are all changing their political tunes.

What are China and Russia doing?

They’re stamping their intentions on the table that is the world – that they will continue to support whoever the US opposes, and oppose whatever the US supports. That’s a whole other issue for another day.

How does India figure in all this?

With our foreign policy being led by the very inept S.M.Krishna, I fear much to say anything more. Anything could happen.

Ideally I’d like to see India support Iran monetarily as long as Iran makes it clear that its nuclear intentions are not for weaponization. India should also try and prevent too many sanctions being imposed on the Iranians and cry for peace as much as possible.

This is because of a variety of things, but the basic thing being the leverage Pakistan could get if shit goes down and Iran gets fucked. It could turn Muslim ire onto us, the so-called oppressors of the Kashmiris. Pakistan has already made it clear that they’ll support Iran no matter what. I most certainly don’t want to see India getting one upped by Pakistan in the world.

Also, oil. Nothing will happen to the US in case of an oil shock, considering they produce most of their oil and import the rest from Canada, importing very little from the Middle East.

India however is screwed since 1/10th of our oil comes from Iran and there’s no way to surely depend on the Saudis to make up for any loss we might make. Therefore we must do everything in our capacity to make sure said “loss” doesn’t occur.

And lastly, from a naive 20 year old guys POV, India and Iran have been historically close. If we betray Iran now, we could lose a good friend and friends aren’t that easy to make in the world these days.

Posted on February 20, 2012, in The Serious Stuff. Bookmark the permalink. Leave a comment.

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